Wine Online: Let's Win the Close Ones

Aug. 9, 2006

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• Read about Iowa’s 2006 recruiting class
• Follow the renovation of Kinnick Stadium
• Kinnick: The play at Hancher
• The Schedule: 2006 and beyond
• Cruise with Kirk
• Media Day Photo Gallery

Everything is in place for Iowa to have a memorable football season.

Kinnick Stadium has undergone a major renovation that will make it one of the most attractive venues in college football. (Thankfully, the University decided to upgrade the 77-year old campus landmark rather than implode it and build a new stadium.)

A season ticket sellout has insured capacity crowds for all seven home games.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has a veteran team – including 16 starters – returning from a fourth-straight January bowl game in Florida.

And a new, bronzed, larger-than-life-size statue of Nile Kinnick will highlight the plaza entrance on the south side of the stadium beginning Friday, Sept. 1, when the statuee is first revealed at the conclusion of the open-to-the-public rededication ceremony. The Heisman Trophy winner and Phi Beta Kappa scholar will be dressed in civilian clothes and have text books slung over his shoulder, reminding us that achievement in the classroom is as important as achievement on the football field.

Yes, the 2006 Hawkeyes have a lot going for them and expectations are high. Nobody is predicting them to win the Big Ten Conference championship – their third under Ferentz. – but they are considered a serious contender. And they will be if they win their close encounters. Let me explain by recounting some recent history.

In 2002 the Hawkeyes had four games decided by a touchdown or less. They won three of them – two in the Big Ten -to earn a share of the conference title. Remember the 42-35 overtime victory at Penn State, and the 31-28 thriller at home against Purdue? Without those narrow escapes, Iowa would not have received an Orange Bowl invitation.

In 2003 the Hawkeyes won both of their games decided by a touchdown or less. They beat Michigan at home 30-27, and ended the regular season at Wisconsin by stopping a late Badger drive at the goal line to win 27-21. That earned them a berth in the Outback Bowl, where they thumped a favored Florida team.

In 2004 the Hawkeyes played five games decided by a touchdown or less and won them all. In a space of four weeks they won three contests, all decided by two points. The victims were Penn State 6-4, Purdue 23-21 and Minnesota 29-27, with the Gophers missing a field goal in the game’s final play. Once again, Iowa earned a share of the Big Ten title and played LSU in the Capital One Bowl, which produced the most improbable game-winning play in school history.

The Hawkeyes finished No. 8 in the nation in each of those seasons, largely because they won 10 of the 11 close games in which they were involved.

Then came last season, when close contests went the other way. In back to back Big Ten games, the Hawkeyes lost to Michigan at home in overtime 23-20, then blew a 13-point lead in the final minutes at Northwestern and experienced a crushing 28-27 defeat. To top that off, they went to the Outback Bowl and lost to Florida 31-24 because the Gators returned a blocked punt and a pass interception for touchdowns.

Do close-game wins and losses even out? Do they run in cycles? Does luck play a role? Or is it simply a matter of the better, more determined team winning?

That’s a matter for debate, but I’m inclined to think close games are won by teams that are both well-prepared and opportunistic. You can’t blow scoring opportunities, and you’ve got to force some breaks.

For three years the Hawkeyes won close games by blocking kicks, and intercepting passes. Last year they lost close encounters because the opponent was the opportunist. And instead of finishing 10-2 and winning the Big Ten title and another bowl game, Iowa had a record of 7-5. Sort of a downer.

“Close games will again decide the kind of season we have,” predicted Ferentz at Media Day earlier this week. “I expect us to be involved in a lot of them.”

If he’s right, let’s hope his Hawkeyes play like the Iowa teams of 2002, 2003 and 2004. If they do, we are in for another great year.