Wine: Take Heart, Hawkeye Fans

Wine: Take Heart, Hawkeye Fans

Dec. 17, 2006

If you are bummed out because it appears Iowa is overmatched in the Alamo Bowl, think of it this way:

The Hawkeyes have a better chance to beat Texas at San Antonio than Northwestern had in beating Iowa at Kinnick Stadium several weeks ago.

At least that’s the way the odds makers have it figured. Iowa is an 11-point underdog to Texas, while Northwestern was a 20-point underdog to the Hawkeyes. And you don’t need to be reminded that the Wildcats won by 14 points.

The college football spotlight was focused on Austin way back on Sept. 9 when Texas entertained Ohio State. The contest created gobs of media attention but did not live up to its hype. The Buckeyes won convincingly, 24-7, taking their first big step to the national championship game next month.

Ohio State came into Kinnick Stadium on the last day of September for a game that also had a lot of hype. The Hawkeyes hung in for awhile before losing 38-17.

The advantage goes to Texas when comparing those scores, as it does when looking at how the two teams did against Iowa State, the only other common opponent. The Hawkeyes beat the Cyclones 27-17. Texas won 37-14. Both games were played on the winners’ home fields.

The statistical advantage also tilts toward Texas. The Longhorns average 13 points a game more than Iowa and give up 3.6 points less. The most discouraging category is turnover margin, where Texas is a plus eight and Iowa a minus 10.

Maybe the odds makers are right and Texas deserves to be the solid favorite. But we can take heart in what a bowl scout told me as he walked out of Kinnick Stadium and eyed the scoreboard that showed Northwestern had beaten Iowa, 21-7. “That’s why we play the games,” he smiled.

So be optimistic and believe Iowa’s chances to win in San Antonio are twice as good as Northwestern’s were to win at Kinnick.

Or you can be a pessimist and believe the Longhorns are bigger, faster and stronger and the Hawkeyes don’t have much chance against them. After all, Texas is the defending national champion and was in the thick of the BCS mix (mess?) again this year before losing its last two games.

The Alamo Bowl, a short distance from the UT campus, has to be a big disappointment for a team that was once considered a lock to be playing in January.

The college football spotlight was focused on Austin way back on Sept. 9 when Texas entertained Ohio State. The contest created gobs of media attention but did not live up to its hype. The Buckeyes won convincingly, 24-7, taking their first big step to the national championship game next month.

Ohio State came into Kinnick Stadium on the last day of September for a game that also had a lot of hype. The Hawkeyes hung in for awhile before losing 38-17.

The advantage goes to Texas when comparing those scores, as it does when looking at how the two teams did against Iowa State, the only other common opponent. The Hawkeyes beat the Cyclones 27-17. Texas won 37-14. Both games were played on the winners’ home fields.

The statistical advantage also tilts toward Texas. The Longhorns average 13 points a game more than Iowa and give up 3.6 points less. The most discouraging category is turnover margin, where Texas is a plus eight and Iowa a minus 10.

Maybe the odds makers are right and Texas deserves to be the solid favorite. But we can take heart in what a bowl scout told me as he walked out of Kinnick Stadium and eyed the scoreboard that showed Northwestern had beaten Iowa, 21-7. “That’s why we play the games,” he smiled.

Here’s a look at other bowls that have a Big Ten and/or Iowa connection.

Insight Bowl -After a 2-5 start, Minnesota found a pulse by beating North Dakota State 10-9, then closed the season by thumping Indiana, Michigan State and Iowa to finish 6-6 and get a bowl berth. The opponent is pass-happy Texas Tech, a team that runs up monstrous scores but has also been held to three and six points in losses to TCU and Colorado, respectively. The Red Raiders are favored by a touchdown.

Champs Sports Bowl – Iowa’s most impressive victory was a 47-17 pounding of Purdue, which is the Big Ten entry in this bowl game. The Boilermakers finished strong to get the berth in Orlando that would have gone to the Hawkeyes had they beaten Northwestern and Indiana. Purdue’s opponent out of the ACC is Maryland, and the game is rated a toss-up.

Outback Bowl – The Hawkeyes know all about this game in Tampa, having played there twice in the last three years. The Big Ten representative is Penn State, which will rely on a rugged defense to upset an explosive Tennessee team that is favored by four points. But don’t count out Joe Paterno’s team. He has the best bowl record of any coach alive (or dead for that matter).

Capital One Bowl – Former Hawkeye linebacker and assistant coach Bret Bielema has Wisconsin in a major bowl game in his first year as head coach. The Badgers are 11-1 but didn’t make it into the Top Ten until late in the year. They may not be sexy but they are a solid team that might upset Arkansas out of the rugged SEC.

Fiesta Bowl – Bobby Stoops, an all-Big Ten defensive back at Iowa and later a graduate assistant, sends his Oklahoma team against unbeaten Boise State. This BCS game is interesting because it matches a traditional power against an upstart that is seeking more respect. Yes, Boise State beating Oklahoma would grab our attention, but it’s not likely to happen.

BCS Title Game – Troy Smith and his Ohio State teammates have met every challenge this season and aren’t likely to falter now. Still, Florida’s only loss was to rugged Auburn and the Gators are champions of the SEC, considered college football’s strongest conference this season. Expect the Buckeyes to win, but don’t be too surprised if they don’t.